Benchmark · public ledger
What we predicted. What actually happened.
The plan: every prediction we file publicly is recorded here against the eventual outcome — elections, ad campaigns, product launches, ballot measures. Wins and misses, both, kept in the same column.
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| Filed | Event | Prediction | Actual | Delta | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrative | Single-district primary turnout, two-candidate ballot Elections | Lead 71% / Challenger 29% | Lead 73% / Challenger 27% | +2.0pp | v1.0 |
| Illustrative | State-level ballot measure — yes/no on a policy question Public opinion | Yes 58% / No 42% | Yes 56.6% / No 43.4% | +1.4pp | v1.0 |
| Illustrative | Mid-market chain — entree price test, three-way response Product launches | 44% retain / 31% switch / 25% reduce frequency | 37% retain / 35% switch / 28% reduce frequency | +7.0pp | v1.0 |
Methodology
On the misses.
When real Simulix predictions miss the actual outcome by more than 7 percentage points, we publish a postmortem the same week. We don’t quietly remove the entry. We don’t update the methodology silently. The misses are part of the methodology — that’s the point.